Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.656335 13.633901 15.801231 18.346945 21.249020 24.447911 28.234385
2024-10-20 8.382883 11.007902 14.179897 18.267607 23.365245 29.479853 37.333003
2024-10-27 6.365386 9.248746 13.039057 18.321025 25.414577 34.524902 47.008055
2024-11-03 5.421202 8.583099 13.043592 19.672782 29.124913 41.941518 60.416001
2024-11-10 4.601607 7.876060 12.797624 20.540282 32.170555 48.692682 73.554244
2024-11-17 3.947170 7.257908 12.529564 21.257453 34.986666 55.301765 87.029341
2024-11-24 3.252613 6.418608 11.751870 21.026958 36.271620 59.710872 97.609376
2024-12-01 2.610668 5.528140 10.724021 20.204383 36.459864 62.384326 105.698228
2024-12-08 2.128483 4.823821 9.885802 19.549016 36.784061 65.213765 114.159570
2024-12-15 1.839217 4.432304 9.539522 19.687582 38.423837 70.249361 126.477932
2024-12-22 1.549897 3.977004 8.993239 19.368693 39.193062 73.852607 136.657014
2024-12-29 1.433686 3.875154 9.124774 20.343385 42.379894 81.807358 154.704289
2025-01-05 1.259110 3.611821 8.902890 20.632786 44.394995 88.011310 170.460091
2025-01-12 1.097680 3.345437 8.634917 20.799635 46.207408 94.032825 186.419978
2025-01-19 0.958958 3.103756 8.381032 20.959270 48.017468 100.193444 203.090358
2025-01-26 0.922287 3.129059 8.750255 22.522362 52.825148 112.339641 231.559657
2025-02-02 0.855254 3.052779 8.861811 23.516459 56.537988 122.652522 257.276175
2025-02-09 0.785745 2.952164 8.895568 24.331275 59.939751 132.593688 282.915269
2025-02-16 0.677313 2.702037 8.501150 24.074047 60.976154 137.902449 299.963721
2025-02-23 0.559563 2.386068 7.871243 23.147540 60.412418 139.906127 310.639999
2025-03-02 0.467108 2.127033 7.347780 22.408569 60.183753 142.554342 322.732590
2025-03-09 0.415056 1.998763 7.177893 22.565058 62.060375 149.756618 344.489754
2025-03-16 0.356011 1.823991 6.834507 22.205274 62.655167 154.237116 360.896720